跨境数据流动限制对中国制造业全球价值链地位的影响

The Influence of Cross-border Data Flow Restrictions on the Position of China's Manufacturing Industry in the Global Value Chain

摘要:

随着数字贸易的发展，跨境数据流动限制对制造业全球价值链地位的影响成为影响一国经济高质量发展的重要议题。基于2014－2020年UIBE GVC数据库所提供的ADB-MRIO的数据，以及经济分析局和经合组织数据库所提供的数据，运用实证分析的方法，研究考察跨境数据流动限制对中国制造业价值链地位提升的影响。研究表明：跨境数据流动限制会显著抑制中国制造业全球价值链地位的攀升，这种抑制作用通过抑制制造业数字化转型、阻碍ICT服务出口和阻碍技术创新3条渠道来实现；发达国家、与中国不接壤的国家以及践行非中式规则的国家所提出的跨境数据流动限制，对中国制造业全球价值链地位提升的抑制作用最为明显；技术密集型业全球价值链地位的提升最容易受到跨境数据流动限制的阻碍。在跨境数据流动受到限制的情况下，增加技术改造的费用支出和更多地使用安全互联网服务器，有利于缓解其抑制中国制造业全球价值链地位的提升。基于此，应适度放宽数据限制，打造优质数字贸易规则的“中式模版”，积极推动企业数字化转型，完善数字基础设施建设。

Abstract:

In the context of the rapid expansion of digital trade, cross-border data flow restrictions have emerged as a pivotal factor shaping the evolution of global value chain (GVC) positions in the manufacturing sector. This study systematically investigates the impact of such restrictions on China's manufacturing GVC upgrading through an analysis of 47 key trading partners from 2014 to 2020. By integrating the Asian Development Bank’s Multi-Regional Input-Output (ADB MRIO) tables from the UIBE GVC Indicators Database, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) statistics, and OECD Digital Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (DSTRI), the paper employs fixed-effects models with robustness checks, including variable substitution, fixed-effect adjustments, sample period truncation, and lagged specifications. Endogeneity concerns are addressed through instrumental variables derived from partner countries’ legal frameworks and civil liberty indices.The research shows that cross-border data flow restrictions will significantly inhibit the rise of China's manufacturing GVC position, and this inhibitory effect is achieved through three channels: inhibiting the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry, hindering the export of ICT services, and hindering technological innovation. The countries that have proposed cross-border data flow restrictions, including developed countries, non-bordering countries, and non "Chinese templates" countries, have the most obvious inhibitory effect on the enhancement of China's manufacturing GVC position. Then, the enhancement of the global value chain position of the "technology-intensive" industry is most easily hindered by cross-border data flow restrictions. Under the condition that cross-border data flow is restricted, increasing the cost of technological transformation and using more secure internet servers can help alleviate the inhibitory effect of cross-border data flow restrictions on the enhancement of China's manufacturing GVC position. Based on this, it is advisable to moderately relax data restrictions and create a high-quality digital trade rules, actively promote enterprise digital transformation, and improve digital infrastructure construction.